What a Disaster!

Preparing for the next disaster

With all of the school closings, a group of recent students being “quarantined” from graduation, and Vice President Biden telling everyone not to travel on public transit (later recast as “if you are SICK, don’t use mass transit”), the H1-N1 virus(we have now been told not to call it the “swine flu” so as not to negatively impact pork sales in the US, where no swine have been infected – true story) has dominated headlines. But, as we at NCHERM are in the business of PREVENTIVE law and risk management, we hope that our clients (and readers) will pay attention to other potential threats and prepare accordingly, so as to avoid being stuck in reactionary modes.

So, in that vein, here are some other things to consider over the next year:

A recent forecast for the 2009 Hurricane Season predicted 12 named storms with 2-3 being “intense.” While the Gulf Coast states are painfully aware and prepare every year, the East Coast schools tend to sporadically prepare – as other things (e.g., H1-N1, school deaths, etc.) tend to get in the way. But I would offer yet another cautionary suggestion to our inland colleagues. While I am confident that the Federal response to another Katrina-esque storm will be better, (could it possibly be worse?!?), our inland colleagues should dust off the post-Katrina reports (if you have them) and make sure you are ready to house, enroll, treat, and/or shelter a group if need be. Not only is it the right thing to do, but the positive PR cannot be ignored (kudos to Mayor White and the city of Houston and Stephen F Austin State University among many others). From a risk management perspective, this is a “Natural Disaster;” an inevitability, not a possibility, so get ready – you will be measured not on prevention, but response.

Another news story has been tracking the wildfires over the last year in California, Florida, New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, and South Carolina and predicts that, as global warming continues to increase drought days in these areas, the wildfire phenomenon will continue. While these events feel like “Natural Disasters,” I classify them in my Risk Management Arena as “Man-Made Disasters.” Not because of the arson possibility or to make some global warming political statement, but because, especially for those schools in high-risk states and areas, you will be measured – in the risk management world – on your risk reduction activities as well as your response.

In the same arena as Hurricanes, an interesting, yet not well publicized report was made analyzing fault lines around the world. Of particular note was the Heyward fault, which runs through Northern California, and directly through SF and Oakland. For over 700 years, there has been a major earthquake roughly every 104-140 years(defining “major” is apparently a sticking point, but doesn’t matter here). If you count the “Big One” of 1906 (no one seemed to count the World Series interrupting 1989 quake as “major” – except for the victims, I am guessing), we are coming up on time for the next one. If you don’t, we are long overdue (by about 25 years). Either way, imagine a minimum 3500 dead, 50,000+ injured, 75,000-100,000 homeless, and the 30+ schools in the area devastated. These are Katrina-esque numbers, but in larger metropolitan areas.

I certainly don’t want to ruin your summer, but I do want us all to be prepared. In an odd way, this makes even more critical the need to have practiced, established preventive protocols and solid risk management practices in place for the (by comparison) “mundane” issues like student self-injury – intentional or otherwise – and other mental health issues.

Have a great weekend.

Scott Lewis